Banse Early Career Scientist Seminar

Wednesday, February 28, 03:30 PM to 04:30 PM PST

Ocean Sciences Building (OSB), Room 425 with tea and cookies to follow

Sofia Darmaraki, FORTH - Hellas, Greece

Title: On the Drivers of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract: The Mediterranean Sea is considered a climate change “Hot Spot” and depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenario, the annual mean basin sea surface temperature (SST) is expected to increase from +1.5 °C to +3 °C at the end of the 21st century, relative to present-day. This significant SST rise is likely to intensify episodes of extreme warm ocean temperatures in the basin, named as Marine heatwaves (MHWs). To date we know more about how much MHW intensity and duration are projected to increase in the Mediterranean Sea due to anthropogenically-induced climate change, than we know for the drivers behind those future MHW characteristics. That is, any future changes in the dominant, local-scale physical processes behind MHWs are poorly understood in the basin. Here, we first present an overview of MHW trends in the Mediterranean Sea from the end of the 20th to the end of the 21st century and under different climate change scenario. Based on this evolution, we then examine how spatiotemporal distribution of MHW drivers changes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to the present day. This information is useful, given that local-scale physical processes are the ones ultimately promoting or inhibiting the development and intensity of MHWs regionally and at daily timescales.